While the Federal Reserve continues its positive spin campaign in anticipation of a September rate rise. Reality in the form of economic indicators and even Leaked Fed Staff Forecast Reflects Gloomier Expectations for U.S. Economy
are proving a formidable counter narrative. To be clear we believe with the "Forward Guidance" on display here a rate rise is already built into interest rates with a potential for positive impact if fiscal policy coordination is forthcoming though at least pensioners will get a return boost with bonds. If only officials were more explicit in this regard-we can only hope this will be the next level of FG.
Getting back to the report and our requirement to highlight the built in failure of the Fed to achieve its mandate. In addition to revised growth figures for 2015 “a little lower” to 1.55 percent in 2015-
"The minutes also described the staff forecast as predicting that inflation will return to a 2 percent annual pace by 2018. The staff actually forecast that inflation would average 1.92 percent in 2018, and that it would not reach the Fed’s 2 percent target in the next five years, rising to 1.97 in 2020"
Since Ben Bernanke's "Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again” mea culpa at Milton Friedman's 91st birthday, the post crisis response has time and again proved the limitations of the monetarists, banking sector first, policy prescription.
Meanwhile...
are proving a formidable counter narrative. To be clear we believe with the "Forward Guidance" on display here a rate rise is already built into interest rates with a potential for positive impact if fiscal policy coordination is forthcoming though at least pensioners will get a return boost with bonds. If only officials were more explicit in this regard-we can only hope this will be the next level of FG.
Getting back to the report and our requirement to highlight the built in failure of the Fed to achieve its mandate. In addition to revised growth figures for 2015 “a little lower” to 1.55 percent in 2015-
"The minutes also described the staff forecast as predicting that inflation will return to a 2 percent annual pace by 2018. The staff actually forecast that inflation would average 1.92 percent in 2018, and that it would not reach the Fed’s 2 percent target in the next five years, rising to 1.97 in 2020"
Since Ben Bernanke's "Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again” mea culpa at Milton Friedman's 91st birthday, the post crisis response has time and again proved the limitations of the monetarists, banking sector first, policy prescription.
Meanwhile...
Finally to highlight just how different the last 10 years have been in growth terms.
All we can do is shout about it here. Hopefully with time, and mounting data, policy makers at the Fed and in Congress will get their act together. Not holding our breathe but will continue to highlight initiatives to directly boost employment and investments in public goods with a return on investment.
RSS Feed